Impact Assessment in the European Union: Lessons from a Research Project

publication-status: Acceptedtypes: ArticleIn this article, we present some major lessons drawn from a recently completed research project. Our research dealt with ex-ante evaluation, mainly impact assessment (IA). We shed new light on research questions about the control of bureaucracy, the role of IA in decision-making, economics and policy learning, and the narrative dimension of appraisal. We identify how our findings stand in relation to conventional arguments about these issues, and reflect on their normative implications. We finally reason on the possible extensions of our arguments to the wider field of policy evaluation, connecting IA and ex-post evaluation.European Research Council (ERC) project Analysis of Learning in Regulatory Governance (ALREG

Overcoming Illusions of Control: How to Nudge and Teach Regulatory Humility

In this chapter we focus on how to use insights from behavioural theory in the process of impact assessment of EU policy proposals. Over the last decade, the European Commission and more generally the European Union (EU) have developed an integrated approach to impact assessment of policy proposals – legislative or not. The impact assessment process is now a major step in the development of proposals by the European Commission. Recently, the European Parliament being biased in this way!!as invested in analytical capacity to work dialogically with the Commission on this issue. Extant literature has established that the EU impact assessment system is, comparatively speaking (for example, in comparison to the systems of the 28 Member States and the United States [US]), sufficiently robust and comprehensive (Fritsch et al., 2013; Renda, 2011; Radaelli, 2009; Wiener and Alemanno, 2010). In the debate of how to conduct impact assessment and train policymakers, there are calls for integrating the insights of behaviour science into policymaking and design regulatory options that take into account the various biases that affect citizens’ responses (Alemanno and Spina, 2013; John, 2013; John et al., 2013; Sunstein, 2011; Van Bavel et al, 2013; Vandebergh, Carrico and Schultz, 2011). But policymakers have a brain too, and therefore their own choices can be biased. The starting point for this chapter is the potential impact of one over-arching bias – the illusion of control (Langer, 1975). The proposition is that this illusion – which leads humans to over-estimate their competence and ability to control outcomes – may be particularly damaging when the tendency to regulate is institutionalised. Specifically, while the EU impact assessment process obliges policymakers to consider the status quo option (non-intervention), this is rarely ever selected. We should be clear: we do not claim that cognitive biases explain the preference for public intervention. There are different political and economic justifications for intervention. An organisation can also deliberatively decide to manipulate the IA procedures towards interventionist choices. If this is so, cognitive biases have no role to play since the organisation is not misdiagnosing the facts; rather it is manipulating them. Rather, we are interested in increasing policy makers’ awareness of ‘regulatory humility’ (Dunlop and Radaelli, 2015b). We believe this should be encouraged among policy-makers, and specifically that the option of not using public intervention (so called ‘do nothing’ option in IA) be given due consideration – whether it is rejected or not. The classic policy-making literature has always pointed toward the limits of policymaking and policymakers (notably, Hogwood and Gunn, 1984; Simon, 1956; Vickers, 1965: chapter 8; Wildavsky, 1979: especially part 2). The increased complexity of the policy environment, the difficulty of getting evidence into policy, and greater clarity about human biases have all led to a re-discovery of these limitations. The result has been a renewed call for regulatory humility and humble decision-making (Dunlop and Radaelli, 2015b; Etzioni, 2014). We are interested in how EU policymakers might be de-biased in two main ways: first by structuring IA in ways that encourage policymakers act in ways that work with biases and second by using training to stimulate awareness and reflection about the biases and their possible impact on policymakers’ work. The chapter is structured as follows. In section one, we set up the proposition that EU policymakers are especially susceptible to an illusion of control. Then we explore what can be done to combat a pre-eminent bias. We outline two categories of solutions. In section two we look at how the IA system in the EU can be implemented and amended in ways that ‘go with the grain’ of cognitive biases (Dolan et al, 2009: 7). Here, we accept the reality of that policymakers often operate in ‘fast’ mode (Kahneman, 2011). Rather than try to re-wire the policymaker’s brain, we focus on re-wiring the context within which they work to ensure that what is automatic to them is also beneficial to policymaking. In short, how can we nudge EU policymakers to explore the ‘do-nothing option’, and indeed all policy options, with humility about the control they can exercise? Section three takes a slightly different tack. Here we focus on how policymakers can be exhorted to engage in more ‘slow’ thinking about the biases they carry. Such reflection can be triggered through training. We explore the possible teaching tools that can be and are being used including in-class behavioural experiments. The chapter concludes with a discussion of how some of these ideas can be taken forward by the Commission

Effect of Sr substitution on superconductivity in Hg2(Ba1-ySry)2YCu2O8-d (part2): bond valence sum approach of the hole distribution

The effects of Sr substitution on superconductivity, and more particulary the changes induced in the hole doping mechanism, were investigated in Hg2(Ba1-ySry)2YCu2O8-d by a "bond valence sum" analysis with Sr content from y = 0.0 to y = 1.0. A comparison with CuBa2YCu2O7-d and Cu2Ba2YCu2O8 systems suggests a possible explanation of the Tc enhancement from 0 K for y = 0.0 to 42 K for y = 1.0. The charge distribution among atoms of the unit cell was determined from the refined structure, for y = 0.0 to 1.0. It shows a charge transfer to the superconducting CuO2 plane via two doping channels pi(1) and pi(2), i.e. through O2(apical)-Cu and Ba/Sr-O1 bonds respectively.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Physics: Condensed Matte

Universal magneto-orbital ordering in the divalent AA-site quadruple perovskite manganites AAMn7_7O12_{12} (AA = Ca, Sr, Cd, and Pb)

Through analysis of variable temperature neutron powder diffraction data, we present solutions for the magnetic structures of SrMn$_7$O$_{12}$, CdMn$_7$O$_{12}$, and PbMn$_7$O$_{12}$ in all long-range ordered phases. The three compounds were found to have magnetic structures analogous to that reported for CaMn$_7$O$_{12}$. They all feature a higher temperature lock-in phase with \emph{commensurate} magneto-orbital coupling, and a delocked, multi-\textbf{k} magnetic ground state where \emph{incommensurate} magneto-orbital coupling gives rise to a constant-moment magnetic helix with modulated spin helicity. CdMn$_7$O$_{12}$ represents a special case in which the orbital modulation is commensurate with the crystal lattice and involves stacking of fully and partially polarized orbital states. Our results provide a robust confirmation of the phenomenological model for magneto-orbital coupling previously presented for CaMn$_7$O$_{12}$. Furthermore, we show that the model is universal to the $A^{2+}$ quadruple perovskite manganites synthesised to date, and that it is tunable by selection of the $A$-site ionic radius

Time-dependent local Green's operator and its applications to manganites

An algorithm is presented to calculate the electronic local time-dependent Green's operator for manganites-related hamiltonians. This algorithm is proved to scale with the number of states $N$ in the Hilbert-space to the 1.55 power, is able of parallel implementation, and outperforms computationally the Exact Diagonalization (ED) method for clusters larger than 64 sites (using parallelization). This method together with the Monte Carlo (MC) technique is used to derive new results for the manganites phase diagram for the spatial dimension D=3 and half-filling on a 12x12x12 cluster (3456 orbitals). We obtain as a function of an insulating parameter, the sequence of ground states given by: ferromagnetic (FM), antiferromagnetic AF-type A, AF-type CE, dimer and AF-type G, which are in remarkable agreement with experimental results.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figure

The Appraisal of Policy Appraisal – Learning About the Quality of Impact Assessment

notes: This article is based on research carried out with the support of the European Research Council (ERC) grant Analysis of Learning in Regulatory Governance, ALREG, directed by Claudio Radaelli. Dunlop, Fritsch and Radaelli gratefully acknowledge the support of the ERC. A previous version was prepared for the Ecole Nationale d’Administration (ENA) workshop on ‘Theory and Practice of Regulatory Impact Assessments in Europe’ 10 June 2013. The authors wish to express their gratitude to Ioannis Lianos and two anonymous referees for their insightful comments on earlier drafts. The usual disclaimer applies.publication-status: Acceptedtypes: ArticleFinal draftWhat do governments, international organizations and stakeholders mean when they say that proposals for new regulation should be systematically appraised? And do regulators really use the results of appraisal? In this article, we consider two dimensions of policy appraisal: the breadth and scope of the empirical analysis, and the utilization of impact assessment. We use these two dimensions to produce an explanatory typology with four types. The types enable us to review the literature systematically, exposing gaps as well as documenting the results. In the final part of the article we build hypotheses that link quality of analysis and utilization, thus showing how future research may become less descriptive and more inclined to test explicit hypotheses.European Research Council (ERC) grant Analysis of Learning in Regulatory Governance, ALRE

Narrating Impact Assessment in the European Union

This paper is based on research carried out with the support of the European Research Council grant on Analysis of Learning in Regulatory Governance, ALREG http://centres.exeter.ac.uk/ceg/research/ALREG/index.php. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the UK Political Studies Association (PSA) annual conference, Belfast 3-5 April 2012 and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change conference, Berlin 5-6 October 2012. We are grateful to Mathias Delori and Anna Durnova for extensive comments on an early draft.publication-status: AcceptedSince 2003, the European Commission has produced analytical documents to appraise and support its policy proposals. These so-called impact assessments (IAs) are now quite common in the preparation of legislation in the member states of the European Union. Previous research has been concerned with the quality of the IAs in terms of evidence-based policy, especially in terms of economic analysis and other standards of smart regulation. In this article, we move from a different perspective. We draw on the narrative policy framework to explore impact assessment as text and discursive instrument. We consider a sample of IAs that differ by originating DGs, legal instrument, and level of saliency. The findings show that the narrative components of the IA are quite prominent in the sample. The Commission may use IA to produce evidence-based policy, but it also engages with IA to provide a presentation of self, to establish EU norms and values, and to create consensus around policy proposals by using causal plots, doomsday scenarios, and narrative dramatization

Electrical switching of magnetic polarity in a multiferroic BiFeO3 device at room temperature

We have directly imaged reversible electrical switching of the cycloidal rotation direction (magnetic polarity) in a (111)-BiFeO3 epitaxial-film device at room temperature by non-resonant x-ray magnetic scattering. Consistent with previous reports, fully relaxed (111)-BiFeO3 epitaxial films consisting of a single ferroelectric domain were found to comprise a sub-micron-scale mosaic of magneto-elastic domains, all sharing a common direction of the magnetic polarity, which was found to switch reversibly upon reversal of the ferroelectric polarization without any measurable change of the magneto-elastic domain population. A real-space polarimetry map of our device clearly distinguished between regions of the sample electrically addressed into the two magnetic states with a resolution of a few tens of micron. Contrary to the general belief that the magneto-electric coupling in BiFeO3 is weak, we find that electrical switching has a dramatic effect on the magnetic structure, with the magnetic moments rotating on average by 90 degrees at every cycle.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures; corrected figure